NCSD Half Truth #2: "Currently, Santa Maria's Water includes 90%+ State Water"

This is not true.

On 1/28/12 Mr Lebrun stated that last year Santa Maria used 95% state water, but that was a year of almost twice average rainfall

Why it matters:

The state water is of a better quality then the groundwater.

A larger percentage of state water will result in better quality then the existing quality of NCSD water.

A smaller percentage of state water will result in worse quality then the existing quality of NCSD water.

More state water can provide both a more reliable supply and a less reliable supply depending on the future situation.

It could be a more reliable supply because state water is not from the groundwater basin and is not part of the dispute over who can pump groundwater. If there is some limitation on groundwater pumping for NCSD or Santa Maria more state water would be better.

It could be a less reliable supply because state water is part of the state water system that has not been completed to provide all the water that was intended. Current estimates are it will deliver on average 61%-63% of what was contracted for. In dry years it could drop to a very low percentage like 10%.

The worst case would be if there is a limitation on both the groundwater pumping and a low state water delivery

The NCSD slide 31 from 11/9/11 presentation

The Current percentage of state water is not 90%+

If you look at the reports for 2006 to 2010 for any year except 2006 the actual number is much lower. State water supply was calculated as the amount more then groundwater that is needed to make 100%

The average percentage was 74%

Year
Groundwater, in Af,
SM UWMP page 4-10
Groundwater as a percent of total supply,
SM UWMP page 4-10
State Water as a % of total supply
2006
543
4%
96%
2007
2550
17%
83%
2008
6626
46%
54%
2009
6610
46%
54%
2010
3044
19%
81%
Average
74%

 

The future percentage is not estimated to be 90%+, It looks more like 62%

In the CCWA UWMP page 25 According to the 2009 DWR reliability study, the long term reliability of SWP water to Santa Barbara County project participants is 63% of the Table A amount in 2009 and reduces to 61% of the Table A amount in 2029. Following the DWR estimation protocol, the long term average of available water was calculated every five years starting in 2010 and ending in 2035.

Santa Maria UWMP page 3-16 shows projected future water use projections with a NCSD transfer of 2000 and 2500 Af/y. Santa Maria UWMP page 4-5 shows projected future state water deliveries.

The average percentage is 62%

Year
Total Water, in Af/y,
SM UWMP page 3-16
State Water, in Af/y,
Santa Maria UWMP page 4-5
%
2015
16099
11227
70%
2020
17210
11048
64%
2025
18469
10870
59%
2030
19183
10870
57%
2035
19762
10692
54%
Average
62%

Half Truth #2b: "the water source is never less then 50% state water"

Although Santa Maria may intend to keep the number at 50% due to the requirements for the sewer plant. In a drought the delivery of State water could drop below 50% in many years because State Water can drop below a 10% delivery of the allocation in dry years.